Are Pension Forecasts Way Too Sunny?

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Expand view Topic review: Are Pension Forecasts Way Too Sunny?

Re: Are Pension Forecasts Way Too Sunny?

Post by Guestypoo » 02/24/12 16:59:35

If CEO Rick and his criminal republican cronies keep their hands off of our pension it will be just fine.

Re: Are Pension Forecasts Way Too Sunny?

Post by Retired Bubba » 02/05/12 12:53:00

As long as troopers continue to falsely believe that the Legislators love them, and that someone else will speak for their needs...then they will continue to get what they get...nothing. Legislators KNOW that troopers will work for nothing, so that's what they provide. In 1983, Governor Graham made a lot of talk about troopers deserving a 25% pay increase...it was in the news every day for months...but tht year...we got NOTHING! However, because of all the media...the public thought that we got that 25% boost.
Until people learn their history...we will be doomed to repeat it. The rumor mill only perpetuates bad information. Learn the facts! Do not take anyone's word for it. DO your own research. The information is free for the finding.
Just my thoughts...

Re: Are Pension Forecasts Way Too Sunny?

Post by Guest » 02/05/12 12:37:45

Just by way of clarification, those states who underfunded their pensions made the choice not to make their payments to the pension systems. During the boom years, the politicians chose to use the money which was supposed to be put into the pension systems for other purposes. They figured that they could always "make it up later", if necessary. Well, "later" came when the economy contracted, except they no longer had the buckets of money needed to pay off their delinquent debt to the pension systems; to pay-in what they owed. Instead of taking responsibility, they now blame the pension system problems on the "excessive and unmanageable" pension benefits, not on their choice to skip required pension contributions. Now, here in Florida, they impose a 3% employee contribution, stating (lying) that it is to help "shore up" the pension system, but they reduce the employer contribution by the same 3%. Same amount money going into the pension system, just the source of the money has changed. Obviously, the politicians here just wanted to inflict some pain on the state employees, and garner public support with their "pension reforms" designed to "save the pension system". Don't support politicians who don't support you! Stay safe.

Re: Are Pension Forecasts Way Too Sunny?

Post by Guest » 02/05/12 08:16:23

Instead of using our 3% contribution to shore up the pension fund's underperformance, the politicians took the money and spent it. State or county politicians, doesn't matter, the money has been spent. Some counties gave it back to their employees in the form of raises to offset the mandatory contribution - good for them. The previous employers' contribution should be reinstated and our 3% should be sent to the FRS over and above the employers' contribution. Otherwise, we may end up like NJ, IL, CA, NY, etc where the state has underfunded the pension funds for years resulting in less secure pensions in the long run.

Re: Are Pension Forecasts Way Too Sunny?

Post by Guest » 02/04/12 20:17:48

If they legitimately need to lower the discount rate of the plan, then they can increase the employer contribution rate and adjust their investment strategy in order to keep the promise that they made to us! The charade of instituting employee "contributions" in order to reduce the employer contribution is at best disingenous. Only the giddy, pension envious public can't see that no additional funds are being infused into the pension system (which was the claimed purpose of employee contributions); the liars simply shifted 3% of the burden from the employer to the employee. The important thing for all FRS members to remember is, Don't support politicians who don't support you!

Re: Are Pension Forecasts Way Too Sunny?

Post by Guest » 02/04/12 16:49:19

The returns are hardly even keeping up with inflation. Either way the state making employees contribute does nothing to sure up the fund. Its a bait and switch from the liars that run this state.

Re: Are Pension Forecasts Way Too Sunny?

Post by Guest » 02/04/12 15:56:26

Read the latest Annual Report, and then relax. The pension plan is fine, but don't let the facts get in the way of the anti-pension, anti-public employee, pension envy populist, political agenda: https://www.rol.frs.state.fl.us/forms/2009-10_Annual_Report.pdf

And, don't forget that the FRS contribution rates are adjusted annually in accomodation of the anticipated rate of return and actuarial data. During periods of high returns, the contribution rate was reduced and the politicians running the agencies spent the "savings" however they pleased. During periods of low returns, contribution rates are increased and the politicians get to lie that the pension plan is "unsustainable".

Just more political shenanigans.

Re: Are Pension Forecasts Way Too Sunny?

Post by Guest » 01/29/12 00:43:31

Here are some more meaningful long term numbers showing the FRS fell short of its return goals:

3 year - 4.05%

5 year - 4.92%

10 year - 5.50%

15 year - 7.45%

The SBA is not composed of a bunch of Warren Buffett clones, they outperform their benchmarks because they create the benchmarks after the performance numbers are in for the period in question. It's a very deceptive performance comparison.

http://myfrs.com/imageserver/pdf/newsletters/es/newsletter_102011.pdf

Re: Are Pension Forecasts Way Too Sunny?

Post by Guest » 01/28/12 23:02:19

Guest wrote:http://www.sbafla.com/fsb/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=_l2AFxAIy04%3d&tabid=706&mid=2374

The Florida FRS Pension fund made money last year to the tune of hauling in a 14% return on its investments.


You have no idea of what you are talking about. Per the SBA website, for the 12 months ending in Nov. 30th, 2011, the FRS pension fund earned a total of 3.58%.


http://www.sbafla.com/fsb/Portals/Internet/Funds/2011AR/flashPages.html

You are correct the fund earned 14% in 2010, in 2011 the FRS fund earned 22%.

Look it up in the provided link and try not to twist short term numbers. By the way, the 3.58% earned for that month beat the projected return of 3.08%. Like I said stop trying to twist monthly short term reports into your twisted the sky is falling BS.

Re: Are Pension Forecasts Way Too Sunny?

Post by Guest » 01/28/12 22:43:43

http://www.sbafla.com/fsb/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=_l2AFxAIy04%3d&tabid=706&mid=2374

The Florida FRS Pension fund made money last year to the tune of hauling in a 14% return on its investments.


You have no idea of what you are talking about. Per the SBA website, for the 12 months ending in Nov. 30th, 2011, the FRS pension fund earned a total of 3.58%.

Re: Are Pension Forecasts Way Too Sunny?

Post by Guest » 01/28/12 22:30:53

There is no political conspiracy, the math shows that the stock market would have to have a 14% average annual return over the next 10 years in order for the FRS to earn its stated goal of 7.75% (after fees) avg. annual return over 20 years. If you believe that the 14% average annual return will show up over the next 10 years, you also believe in the Tooth Fairy and Easter Bunny.

Re: Are Pension Forecasts Way Too Sunny?

Post by Guest » 01/28/12 20:37:55

Only a real fool would say that the Florida FRS pension fund is in trouble and failing. The facts do not back up the doom and glum crowd.

The Florida FRS Pension fund made money last year to the tune of hauling in a 14% return on its investments.

Further it does not have to be fully funded because it is impossible for everyone to draw from it at the same time which is what would have to happen for it to fall short.

Those in the defined benefit side if they retire early are not eligible to start drawing from the FRS until the reach a certain age and then they are penalized for each year they retired early.

But don't let the facts stand in your way of trying to spread your lies about the Florida FRS pension fund being in serious trouble and may collapse any day now.

The real fact is Florida has done things right and the FRS pension fund is one of the top ten funds in the world it is so strong.

Re: Are Pension Forecasts Way Too Sunny?

Post by Guest » 01/28/12 19:59:44

Dear Mr. Oops,

You still did not answer the original question about the long history of the FRS being solvent and exceeding expectations. I am aware of the current financial crisis the our elected officials have put us in and all financial area have been struggling since 2008

But the truth is the actuarial assets of the FRS defined benefit plan exceeded the actuarial liabilities of the system from 1998 through 2008. I am aware of the current financial crisis that the bankers and elected officials have put us in. Most all financial areas have been struggling since 2008. Like all investment funds the FRS does better in some years than others.

However, you just keep preaching on the bad years and totally ignore the good ones....typical.

Re: Are Pension Forecasts Way Too Sunny?

Post by econprof & LEO » 01/28/12 16:54:31

Guest wrote:
Guest wrote:Exactly. If the FRS and other public pensions were subject to the more realistic return GAAP standards which private pensions are, the public pensions would appear even more underfunded. The Madoff return projections used by public pensions is nothing more than a scam. Amazing how public employees keep drinking the Kool-Aid.[/quote

Well my Kool-Aid pitcher has 120 billion reasons why I keep drinking. All you so called money experts that come on this board and post comments like the intellectual’s you think you are have never once explained the 20+ years the FRS has been around, it continues to make money and stays funded. Prior to the Wall Street fiasco in 2008 the FRS was over 100 percent funded, and even with all the financial crud it is still in the high 80’s. The whole financial market is struggling but all of a sudden the FRS is on the verge of going belly-up and breaking the State Budget.

The sky is falling isn’t it Chicken Little.


Unfortunately, you are a victim of the enigmas of economic illiteracy. The FRS is UNDERFUNDED, based upon the future needs for payouts. It is currently not actuarial sound.

The fact is that in the past 4-5 years, the stock market has had an ANNUAL AVERAGE NEGATIVE RETURN. NOT ONLY HAVE NO GROWTH OF PREVIOUS VALUES OCCURRED, FRS IS BELOW ITS REAL, INFLATION ADJUSTED VALUE FROM 4-5 YEARS AGO (when accounting for the additional CONTRIBUTIONS that have been added to it)-- IT HAS MADE NO GROWTH DURING THE past 4-5 YEARS. That is hardly a favorable profligate position for a pension fund that impacts many thousands of past, present, and future employees of the State.

If you want to fight economically knowledgeable professors and practitioners, feel free to be blinded by the B. "Made-Offs" of the world AND fool yourself. We may be thought of as curmudgeons. However, that characterization may be better than your engagement in acrimony with Ph.D economically educated observers when you are telling them that they are incorrect based upon your lack of authoritative, historical, factual data, and sound economic and financial theory. Only a hubris fool would play that hand. :oops: :oops:

Oops!
:cop: :roll: :roll:

Re: Are Pension Forecasts Way Too Sunny?

Post by Guest » 01/28/12 15:04:22

[quote="Guest"]Exactly. If the FRS and other public pensions were subject to the more realistic return GAAP standards which private pensions are, the public pensions would appear even more underfunded. The Madoff return projections used by public pensions is nothing more than a scam. Amazing how public employees keep drinking the Kool-Aid.[/quote

Well my Kool-Aid pitcher has 120 billion reasons why I keep drinking. All you so called money experts that come on this board and post comments like the intellectual’s you think you are have never once explained the 20+ years the FRS has been around, it continues to make money and stays funded. Prior to the Wall Street fiasco in 2008 the FRS was over 100 percent funded, and even with all the financial crud it is still in the high 80’s. The whole financial market is struggling but all of a sudden the FRS is on the verge of going belly-up and breaking the State Budget.

The sky is falling isn’t it Chicken Little.

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