David Craig's Jail Death Propaganda Exposed

You keep talking about our deaths being 5x the national average for similar jails. I’d love to see where you get those numbers from. Have Thelbirt use that Master’s degree he’s got and figure out where that 500% comes from. We may be slightly elevated but not by much. Again, I’d love to know how you’re calculating. You’ve got some of that ACLU/USSR propaganda going on I do believe.

Here are some facts for you Craig:

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics Special Report: Suicide and Homicide in State Prisons and Local Jails August 2005.

It can be viewed at: http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/shsplj.pdf


Between 2000-2002 The following Florida Counties had the following number of deaths:

Dade County: 46
Broward County: 29
Orange County: 15
Hillsborough County: 16
Jacksonville City: 30
Pinellas: 14
Palm Beach County: 13

Here is the current population estimates:

Escambia: 296,000
Jacksonville: 826,000
Palm Beach 1.2 million
Broward 1.7 million
Dade: 2.3 million
Pinellas: 928,000
Hillsborough: 1.1 million
Orange 1 million

You say Escambia County has 15 deaths, but we will take out at least 2 that happened in work release. (The above study doesn’t factor those in and I’m not sure how many of your famous 15 were from there except the 2). So that leaves Escambia with 13 or so. To compare it with the above counties 2000-2002 we will assume that the deaths take place at a steady pace so in 6.25 years of McNesby there have been 13 deaths. This comes out to 2.08 deaths per year.

Using a simple ratio jail deaths per year to population and scaling it to our county you get the following:

Jacksonville 3.58
Escambia 2.08
Dade 1.93
Broward: 1.74
Orange: 1.48
Pinnelas: 1.48
Hillsborough: 1.43
Palm Beach: 1.06


Keep in mind that these larger counties have more services for mentally ill patients as well. My rounding, census years, and assumptions on ESO deaths between 2000-2002 could easily but ESO equal with these other counties. While I may have small errors in assumptions, please tell me where you are getting the 500% from.

More lies and exaggerations from the Morgan camp which make deputies look like murderers in order to further their campaign. I’m sure they have your best interests at heart.

David Craig: He's too Extreme for CLEO, but just right for David Morgan.

Your statistical model is not what I would call accurate. First it has nothing to do with the size of the county population. The DOJ death rates are based upon the average daily population of the jail. Thanks for digging up the document that I was using for my story on the death rates a year ago. Let's use factual numbers for my study and I think you'll see where I got the numbers. Whenever an estimate is required I'll use the most favorable light to the ECSO as a standard. I'll make this simple. It's the jail homicide rate that I said was 5 times the national average. That was a year ago. Now it's 6 times the national average. Thanks for encouraging me to look back into the stats. Look at page 2 on YOUR document: http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/shsplj.pdf
See the local jail inmate mortality stats per 100,000 inmates. It's rock steady between 2000-2003 at 3 per year per 100,000 inmates. Let's assume that it hasn't gone up given the best professional efforts of our correctional institutions. So over the 6 year period covering the current Sheriff's term we'll use the number of 3 per year. Our jail population in 2000 may have been less than today's average figure of 1800-1850 but let's use the 1850 number to keep the death rate calculation as low as possible. (The lower the daily population = the higher the death rate) Mr. Boggon and Mr. Preyer were both ruled as homicide deaths. That works out to .333 deaths per year per 1850 daily population. Scaled to 100,000 population thats a rate of 18 per year. 18 is 6 times the rate of 3 per 100,000 rate posted on page 2 of Your document. So again those are the facts. And by the way, the only one who called the officers murderers was you.

To be fair I'll do a comparison of local jail deaths by all causes which is what I think you were trying to calculate. The average per 100,000 inmates for the three most recent reporting years is 148.333. We'll use that for the average during the 6 year McNesby administration. Let's also use YOUR number of 13 deaths for all causes which is accurate for this calculation since the DOJ stats don't seem to cover work release. Using the likely generous (to the ECSO) current daily Escambia Jail population average of 1850 and scaling the rate up to 100,000 it equals 708 per year per 100,000 death rate right here in our jail. That comes to 4.737 or 5 times the national average jail deaths from all causes. If we researched the actual jail population in 2000 - 2006 I think we'd find that these negative stats are pushed up even higher. Expressed another way, for our homicide rate in the jail to be at the national average we'd need an average daily jail population of 11,100 and no more jail homicides. For the deaths by all causes rate to be at the national average we'd need a 9250 average daily population and no more deaths by any other causes. So the answer to where I got the numbers is the document provided by the DOJ.

David you need to learn some basic math. If the average death rate in Jail for all causes is 147 per 100,000 then the average it should be in Escambia county it goes like this

147 = ?
100,000 1850

The answer then is 2.7 inmate deaths so actually we are below.

If 13 have died in 6 years that comes out to 2.16 inmate deaths per year.

Show me how your doing your math. Your scaling is REALLY screwed up. It appears your using your 13 deaths here all in one year.

LOL OH RICH!!!! I just listened to the latest Morgan video. Morgan used your 500% in his latest commercial. How's he gonna explain that in actuality it is below the national average? Funny that he starts his video talking about deception and then exagerates reality by 500%.

You will get an opportunity to see his honesty in action if and when he retracts that and offers an apology.

The silence is deafening :oops: :oops: :oops:

You seem to have little patience. I will gladly respond to your math question but please allow time for me to do something other than monitor your blog. Let's make this as easy as possible. Round up the 1850 jail population to 2000 for a daily average. That will give us a lower death rate than a calculation using the actual current population figure of 1850. 2000 x 50 = 100,000. So we simply take the rate of .333 homicide deaths per year (over the past six years) and multiply that by 50 to get the scaled up to 100,000 figure. .333 x 50 = 16.65.

So using an artificially high, rounded up daily population of 2000, it's pretty clear to see that the death rate by homicide in the Escambia County jail is over 5 times the national local jail homicide rate of 3 per year per 100,000.


Silence broken. Class dismissed. :cop:

The rate that David Morgan was referring to specifically was the death rate by homicide. He didn't specify as to which type of death rate. You have been trying to turn truth into a lie and I will not allow that. The story I did a year ago was about the death rate by homicide. 5 times the national average. That was where the number came from. It was true then and 600% is closer to the truth now. It may be higher depending on the actual jail population in 2000-2003 which may have been closer to 1500.

Granted, that second calculation I did yesterday on death by all causes was a bit hasty and incorrect. I stand corrected and thank you for pointing it out. However, that was not the statistic used in the Morgan campaign video. The quote was "death rate" and he meant the homicide death rate. He also referred to his belief that medical neglect was a factor in many of the deaths but that was another subject.

Thanks for complaining about our math. We'll be sure to research the following:
1. The exact average daily population in the jail between 2000-2006
2. Include the updated 600% (or higher) statistic in the next campaign video.
3. Make it absolutely clear that we are talking about the Escambia County Jail Homicide Rate.
4. Determine the exact percentage of homicides in other local jails that involve correctional officers and offer an adjusted homicide rate for those only involving the guards.

We'll see but my estimate is that will put your homicide by deputy rate at about 2000% (or 20 times) the national average since ALL of your homicides involve guards.

We'll use the DOJ charts. We'll publish the math. Obviously we've hit a sensitive spot with this factual revelation. Looking into it further, for which you have yourself to thank, the problem is much worse than the Morgan campaign video indicates.

Bottom line. If you are going to quote Morgan campaign video statistics, quote the ones we are using. Not the ones you want us to use. No amount of juggling the figures will ever change the facts.

Let the spinning begin.

You say you were only referring to homicides but during the video all the deaths scrolled across during that time. I know its hard to admit but our jail death rate is lower than the national average.

As for the research you need to do, best of luck. Your going to need much more than that study. The study only lists the highest Florida counties by death rate for 2000-2002. There could be a county that had 10 homicides in a year but didn't rank overall so we won't know. Also, tell Morgan to refer back to his statistic and methodology classes. If something occurs one in a million times then happens once, it is wrong and unethical to use that as a base. It'd be like a convienience store that sells a winning lottery ticket saying "You are 1.8 million times more likely to win the lottery by buying your ticket at our store."

Your "stats" would never hold up to peer review.

You also need to find out how many homicides are guard vs. prisoner. Medical examiners in other jurisdictions may not have ruled homicide or vice versa. Then there will be about half the years we are below the average (where there were no deaths will we be infinity below the national average?).

The one thing you can calculate from the study is that ESO total average death rate among prisoners is well below the national average. Call the different deaths what you want, but the Morgan campaign will be showing their ignorance.

It was implied in the video that the DEATH rate was 500% higher. If the average person watched that video they would think Morgan was refering to all deaths. (again the scrolling names as well as the inclusion of two work release people that weren't homicide) You got a LOT more BS to spread before you can back up your spin that it only included homicides.


Make sure when your colllecting your info for 1-4 you find out if other agencies are calculating guard vs. prisoners. You made a big claim, now you're scrambling to support it. Best of luck and don't think we'll let the lies go unchecked.


David Craig: Too extreme for CLEO, but just right for David Morgan. :shock:

Your math Craig YOUR MATH!!! Please enroll at the next continuing adult math class.

Homicide rate per year= about 20 per year

Again:

20 = ?
_____ ___
100000 1850

Answer = There should statistically be .37 Homicides per year at ECSO. In the past 6 years there were 3. Statistically there should have been 2.22 in six years. So pretty much there was an extra .8 homicide in 6 years. OMG!!!

This coupled with the fact that we are below the national average in Jail deaths makes you look, well...I guess misleading is a kind enough word.

I didn't make a claim. I made an estimate. And I'm not going to scramble at all. I'm going to carefully research the facts. The only peer review that will count is that of the voters and I think it's fair to let them decide what is true or false. Your suggestion that an isolated year with no stats renders calculations impossible is specious. We are using the averages of many years. The argument that an isolated homicide can't be used as a statistical anchor is fair enough but we were citing multiple homicides. I may not be able to get the stats on everything I'll be seeking but I'll publish what I can find. Public Records requests are wonderful things and the current state government is very pro sunshine on the records issue. So what if the names of the 15 dead on your watch scrolled on the screen? Haven't you ever seen a ticker on a Fox News or a million other TV shows? They often are on totally unrelated subjects to that of the announcer. The candidate talked about the (homicide) death rate of 5 times the national average. The names of the jails 15 dead from all causes over the past 6 years scrolled below on the screen. He also referred to his belief that negligence led to several deaths. Reality is a multitasking event. Get with the times.

[quote="Anonymous"]Your math Craig YOUR MATH!!! Please enroll at the next continuing adult math class.
Homicide rate per year= about 20 per year
Again:
20 = ?
_____ ___
100000 1850
Answer = There should statistically be .37 Homicides per year at ECSO.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I love your ? marks. You throw out a bunch of random numbers too. "Homicide rate per year= about 20 per year" Huh? Should be .37 per year - WHAT?

They say that if people have a hard time understanding something try explaining it a different way. Try this on for size and please respond if you find any error:

Using the DOJ stat of 3 deaths per 100,000 inmates that equals .00003. Any argument or debate so far?

So the death rate by homicide at our jail if average should be the jail population times the nationwide average jail homicide rate.
Questions on that perhaps? I think not.
1850 current jail population times .00003 = .0555
Did you get a different answer? No?
So it shouldn't be .37 a year like you claim should it? Your figure is 6.66 times higher than the DOJ statistics indicate. The rate if average would be .0555. Want to argue that one? No? OK let's move on then.

.333 homicide deaths per year for the past 6 years. (Be glad I'm not counting the Mark Bailey homicide in 1999 and using a 7 year comparison)
So now we simply divide the factual death rate by homicide of .333 in our jail by the factual average death rate that would be in our jail (if we were average) of .0555. The answer is exactly 6.

You can't make the numbers scream out anything but the truth. The Escambia jail death rate by homicide is 6 times the nationwide average. And ALL of your homicides involve guards.

Stop defending the indefensible and figure out a way to fix your problems.

Using the DOJ stat of 3 deaths per 100,000 inmates that equals .00003. Any argument or debate so far?

Yes. Go back and read the study. It is 20 Homicides per 100,000 not 3. Now redo your math David and you may have a revelation. Do you know what it is? Answer: ESO is exactly in line with the rest of the country in Homicides too. Your spinning out of control for all the world to see.

Again, enroll in that math class. Maybe a political science and statistic class while your at it. :roll:

Checkmate it appears...

Ah Hell, I stand corrected. I got Craig disease. It is 3 per 100,000 not 20. But they are saying there are only 20 Homicides a year in local Jails. There is no way that is including guard deaths. That still doesn't change the fact that Morgan's video is misleading and our Jail Deaths are below average. You still have a lot more research to calculate guard vs. inmate deaths.

I am willing to admit a mistake :oops:

Wow I'm impressed. A disease named after me now! As the producer of the Morgan video I can assure you that it wasn't our intention to mislead anyone. We'll clarify the statistics as relating to "jail homicides" in the future. Personally I think that sounds more damning than "death rate" even if the latter term is not specific enough for you. You are right about the challenge of researching guard involved deaths. It's pretty obvious that most people die of natural causes in the nation's jails. That's why I found it obvious that the "death rate" to which David Morgan referred was primarily the homicide death rate. You won't find him complaining about acts of God. As to your mistake, we all make them. Thanks for thinking it through; discovering and admitting your error. I talk about these matters so as to get closer to the truth. I hear a lot of complaints about those who criticize the ECSO. My guess is that when we improve the Sheriff's Office there will be less complaining.

Here's another tidbit to rain on your parade besides the fact the jail death rate is lower than national average.

In that Study Homicides by guards are listed under accidents. That's right. Homicide is only prisoner on prisoner. Here is the link to the form they need to fill out to participate in that study.

http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/quest_archive/cj904.pdf


Look at page 3

Cause of death "Accidental Injury By Other (e.g. positional asphyxiation during cell extraction.)"

So guard vs. inmate deaths would be listed under accident regardless of medical examiner rulings. And quess what? The number of accidents per 100,000 aren't given. So now you have A LOT of studying to do before you can back up your claim. You should have had all your ducks in a row before Morgan went on TV and spouted off speculated (at best) numbers that aren't true.

So David Morgan is again incorrect by saying homicide is 5x the national average. The Homicide rate is 0. Again much better than the national average. As to figuring out the accidental deaths rates and comparing us, best of luck.

All this back and forth ya-ya’ing about numbers is giving me a headache. The real issue is not how many, but if any could have been prevented by proper management! If there was only one death that was due to negligence that could have been prevented, then that was too many!

It's giving me a headache too. Your point is a good one of course. I notice the ECSO debate team spends no time offering suggestions on how to lower the rate. And the arguments are becoming increasingly irrational. If homicide by guard is an accident then suicide is an ECAT bus. You know, the one with the Sheriff's Office painted on it. Thanks for pointing out where the other than inmate homicides are located on the form. If I can get that data I'll likely have the homicide rate by other than inmates to compare to the ECSO's "only by guards" homicide rate. The ECSO is 6 times the national average for homicides overall. The statistic is valid. The tragedy is real. And the solution does not lay in your denial of the facts. Fix your problems.

Craig,

Everyone is tired of your lies. Stay at RMPT.com where you might actually have a following as you have none here. I am sure that if you found a girlfriend, much like Arety found a boyfriend, you'd disappear into the abyss as well like she did. You do like girls don't you?

It's giving me a headache too. Your point is a good one of course. I notice the ECSO debate team spends no time offering suggestions on how to lower the rate. And the arguments are becoming increasingly irrational. If homicide by guard is an accident then suicide is an ECAT bus. You know, the one with the Sheriff's Office painted on it. Thanks for pointing out where the other than inmate homicides are located on the form. If I can get that data I'll likely have the homicide rate by other than inmates to compare to the ECSO's "only by guards" homicide rate. The ECSO is 6 times the national average for homicides overall. The statistic is valid. The tragedy is real. And the solution does not lay in your denial of the facts. Fix your problems.

Your are incorrect. According to the classifications of the study you are using there are zero homicides at the ESO jail. Also the study is for the years 2000-2002. How many guard involved deaths were there. You are merely speculating and warping the study to meet you needs. You are doing quite the disservice to you candidate by telling him to use those numbers.

And if you click your heels together three times and say "there's no place like home," we'll all wake up. It will have been a bad dream. Bailey, Boggon & Preyer will be playing shuffleboard in Miami. And the few (at least) that died of pneumonia (pick one) A. In the Jail B. While being rushed to treatment C. Right after arriving at hospital - They will all have gotten adequate medical care and will still be among the living. The M.E. will actually be releasing information to the family and the press about the cause and manner of those dying in the jail. That 8 month wait will just be part of the nightmare. Speculation is a form of guesswork. I've been using facts, statistics and real dead people to point out your failures. And all you can do is ignore your responsibilities. The election is going to be here soon enough. The voters will decide whether you have a problem or not. And to respond directly to your comment about "warping the study," If we don't count the years where there are no homicides in the statistical analysis THE RATE JUST GETS HIGHER. But that would be too much for you to consider when you are busy denying the constant drumbeat of truth. By the way, what did kill those two work release inmates last year? The drugs brought in by the work release drug dealer perhaps? What was that guy doing out at night dealing drugs anyway? Wasn't he supposed to be locked up at night with the other work release inmates?

David Craig does like girls, in fact he has a very nice wife. It's Richard White that needs a girlfriend and who spends all his time on RMPT, that is when he's not following around a certain strip club owner and her group of misfits. He's waiting until she catches the current boytoy in bed with a much younger and hotter conquest and then be available for his much anticipated turn on the knob. David is just backing the guy he believes would make a better sheriff for Escambia County. Unlike Richard who just has a personal issue with our current sheriff, and is getting paid the big bucks(even though it's hidden in cash) by his current boss. This too shall pass.

Morgan doesn't have much support at PPD. He seems to have a lot of shady answers and no practical answers. When you question on his website you get no answers. What is he hiding?

It is funny how the arguments go back and forth about the jail deaths, and not laughing funny either.
The fact is not about math, and the statistics state wide, it is about death in the jails period!
One is too many and the guest that is argueing is probably the past jail director who has been replaced by someone else and is over at the S.O. doing a different job.
Facts are that if someone was tasered to death, that needs justice, the numbers of prisoners mean nothing to the family that lost its loved one in the jail, they are concerned about the one that they lost, so let's n ot get stuck in beaurocracy here.
The whole point is being missed here in this previous poster as the guest of this blog.
Further, to say that the PPD does not support David Morgan, well do you know everyone and how they will vote when the time comes? And if you were not fearful of him having a very good chance of taking Mc Nesbys
place, you would be speechless.
Fear always makes the mouth start running!

You're right, I am scared Morgan gets elected. I am a resident of Escambia County. With as bad as it is getting out there, we don't need a bleeding heart liberal who is supported by ACLU, the "Cleo" gang and misinformed voters. Living in this county I think we need a strong Sheriff, and neither McNesby or Morgan are that person. We have had enough of deceipt and lies.

You're right, I am scared Morgan gets elected. I am a resident of Escambia County. With as bad as it is getting out there, we don't need a bleeding heart liberal who is supported by ACLU, the "Cleo" gang and misinformed voters. Living in this county I think we need a strong Sheriff, and neither McNesby or Morgan are that person. We have had enough of deceipt and lies.Be patient my friend, a new candidate is on the horizon and at this point MFANS will support him! Hope is on the way.....................MFANS! (Movement For A New Sheriff)

Hope it is not Scapecci or Enquist, or Tharp!
Or any of the S.O. or the FBI![/b]

2 out of 3 of those would be better than McNesby.
3 out of 3 would be better than Morgan.

Any one of the five of them:
1.Scapecci,
2.Enquist,
3.Tharp
4.any of the S.O.
5. or the FBI—
would be an improvement over
McNesby

Any one of the five of them:
1.Scapecci,
2.Enquist,
3.Tharp
4.any of the S.O.
5. or the FBI—
would be an improvement over
McNesbyI hear Scapecci will be publicly announcing soon. He's a good guy and from what we are hearing, there are no "skeletons" in his closet. He's been a successful businessman and all who have worked under him have been treated fair and have nothing bad to say about him. Enquist is probably the most qualified by educational standards and he too is a fair person but he has openly declined to run. Tharp? Answer that for yourselves! The FBI! They should have already been here long ago! And as far as the S.O. goes, there are many candidates in that department that could do a much better job than the current administration! We'll see soon!............................

Now that the new rules gives the election to the one who gets the most votes, McNesby is hoping that 4 or 5 Republicans will jump in the primary race against him because odds are as the incumbent he is sure to get at least a third of the vote. If the old rules were still in effect that would require him to get over fifty percent of the vote to win, he would be a certain loser.

Now that the new rules gives the election to the one who gets the most votes, McNesby is hoping that 4 or 5 Republicans will jump in the primary race against him because odds are as the incumbent he is sure to get at least a third of the vote. If the old rules were still in effect that would require him to get over fifty percent of the vote to win, he would be a certain loser."POWER TO THE PEOPLE!"

Posted by Mr Craig on 3/07 on this site..So using an artificially high, rounded up daily population of 2000, it's pretty clear to see that the death rate by homicide in the Escambia County jail is over 5 times the national local jail homicide rate of 3 per year per 100,000.

Isn't it funny now that he's an employee of the Morgan Admin, he hasn't brought up the word HOMICIDE at all since being hired. Nor has Morgan said that this is due to medical neglect or by officers. I seem to be drawing a blank. How many Homicides at the jail have we had this year Mr Craig or better yet, Sheriff ?

O Homicides. Check with the Medical Examiner. How many would you like there to be? If there were homicides in the jail during the Morgan Administration would that make you happy? What is it in the depth of your ignorance that you are trying to say? Oh I get it. You are just spouting hatred. There is not a speck of rational content in your statements.

Posted by Mr Craig on 3/07 on this site..So using an artificially high, rounded up daily population of 2000, it's pretty clear to see that the death rate by homicide in the Escambia County jail is over 5 times the national local jail homicide rate of 3 per year per 100,000.

Isn't it funny now that he's an employee of the Morgan Admin, he hasn't brought up the word HOMICIDE at all since being hired. Nor has Morgan said that this is due to medical neglect or by officers. I seem to be drawing a blank. How many Homicides at the jail have we had this year Mr Craig or better yet, Sheriff ?
HE does not have time to check on homicides in the jail . He is teaching REDNECK slang to all young ladies that will listen. He is also the go to person when there is a community problem if you think this is not true ask anyone in admin who their community relations director is. He is also busy keeping up the sheriff image as this terrific leader. That alone will take up a considerable amount of time.

It's funny as hell to hear you Craign talking about turning truth into lies. You're the epitome of that statement!

Run your mouths and show your butts all you like. There have been no homicides at the jail under the Morgan administration. I can tell that you wish there were some. You are very very sick individuals who have no business as LEO's. I'm glad Craig helped Morgan get rid of McNesby. I only wish that Morgan had gotten rid of the left over rot that you so very well represent.

Run your mouths and show your butts all you like. There have been no homicides at the jail under the Morgan administration. I can tell that you wish there were some. You are very very sick individuals who have no business as LEO's. I'm glad Craig helped Morgan get rid of McNesby. I only wish that Morgan had gotten rid of the left over rot that you so very well represent.
Now we are going to help craig get rid of morgan, because mcnesby is gone ,from this day forward morgan and craig have to explain their actions, policies or should i say lack of policy and procedures , their lies, and all the campaign promises that they have not kept.

Great idea! Run up to HR with that demand tomorrow morning. This will make everything right.